Ask whether an economy this size can run a government of its own, and the size answers for you.
Texas GDP reached 2.77 trillion dollars in 2024 and about 2.90 trillion in 2025 (Bureau of Economic Analysis). On its own, Texas would be the eighth-largest economy on Earth by nominal GDP, ahead of Italy, Canada, Russia, South Korea, and Australia. Not eighth among the states. Eighth among the nations. Put it the other way: more than 180 of the world's roughly 193 sovereign states run a complete government of their own on a smaller economy than Texas. Only about seven countries out-produce it.
Countries far smaller than Texas run complete, prosperous governments right now, and they do it for sums Texas's tax base would cover. Look at what a sovereign government actually costs:
| Country | GDP | Central-government spending | What it buys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada (G7) | ~$2.2T | ~US$381B federal | Military, central bank, full diplomatic corps, customs, regulators, social insurance |
| Australia | ~$1.75T | ~US$484B all-in | Same, plus Medicare and pensions |
| Israel | ~$0.53T | ~US$155B | A complete, sovereign country, including a top-tier military fighting an active war |
| Switzerland | ~$0.89T | ~US$96B federal | Central bank, diplomacy, customs, regulators (cantons carry the rest) |
Texas raises about 352 billion dollars a year in federal-equivalent taxes, squarely on the scale of Canada's entire federal budget, and it keeps its existing state government in Austin besides. This is not a marginal entity wondering whether it can afford a flag. It out-produces most of the countries it would join as a peer.
There is one more way to settle the scale question, and it is the tax burden. Developed democracies tax and spend somewhere between 38 and 44 percent of GDP across all levels of government (Canada about 40.6 percent, Australia about 38 percent, per the IMF and OECD). Texans carry a total state and local tax burden of about 8 percent of their personal income, among the lightest in the United States, and the whole government footprint they live under, Washington's spending included, sits well below the peer band. Texas is not stretched thin. It is lightly governed for its wealth, with enormous room to fund whatever a sovereign Texas chose to fund.
Even the federal workforce makes the point, and here is the full agency breakdown, because specifics are what survive a skeptic:
| Federal civilian employees in Texas, by agency (OPM) | 2015 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Veterans Affairs | 23,329 | 35,739 |
| Homeland Security | 26,153 | 35,582 |
| Defense (Air Force, Army, Navy civilians + other) | 50,253 | 42,345 |
| Justice | 6,082 | 8,599 |
| Treasury | 11,875 | 9,787 |
| Transportation | 4,385 | 4,571 |
| Agriculture | 4,236 | 3,520 |
| NASA | 3,046 | 2,687 |
| Social Security Administration | 3,205 | 2,805 |
| All other agencies | ~7,300 | ~9,800 |
| Total | 139,835 | 155,434 |
The 2026 column is OPM's current Federal Workforce Data. It counts Defense duty-station civilians, which a commonly cited Congressional Research Service figure of about 131,000 suppresses, so we use the DoD-inclusive count on both ends to compare like with like.
Federal civilian employment in Texas grew about 11 percent over the decade. But the Texas workforce grew faster, so the federal share of all Texas jobs actually fell, from 1.25 percent to about 1 percent. The two biggest civilian employers in the state are now the VA and Homeland Security, each larger than the civilian workforce of any single military branch. Veterans and the border. Whatever Texas is, it is not a company town for the federal government.
"Too small or too weak to go it alone" is not a claim anyone can make with a straight face about the eighth-largest economy on the planet.